A gradual increase in temperatures is anticipated over the coming days outlook, reflecting a shift toward more seasonally typical conditions. Early in the forecast period, the weather is expected to remain largely dry and settled, offering stable and calm conditions across most regions.
However, as the weekend approaches, a change in the weather pattern is likely, bringing an increased chance of rain in several areas. This unsettled trend is projected to persist into at least the early part of next week, with intermittent showers and a generally more variable outlook.
While temperatures will continue to rise modestly, the shift toward wetter conditions may impact outdoor plans and travel. Overall, the period reflects a typical spring transition with mixed conditions.
Read More: Outlook for the Month
Tuesday 6 to Sunday 11 May
Gradual Warming with Increasingly Unsettled Conditions
A dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern North Atlantic continues to influence the weather pattern, with the surface high expected to remain near or over parts of the UK through much of the week.
This will result in predominantly dry and settled conditions, particularly across central and northern areas. Early in the period, daytime temperatures will remain modest, with chilly nights still likely in some regions.
However, prolonged periods of sunshine will contribute to a gradual warming trend as the week progresses.By the weekend, high pressure is forecast to drift eastward, introducing a more unsettled regime. Saturday should remain largely dry, though isolated showers are possible.
On Sunday, rain or showers may become more widespread, particularly across southern and western parts of the UK, accompanied by a brisk easterly or south-easterly breeze.
Monday 12 May to Sunday 18 May
Drier Conditions Likely to Return
As we enter the second half of May, long-range forecast models continue to show some divergence, reflecting uncertainty in the evolving large-scale weather patterns.
The week may begin with unsettled conditions, continuing from the previous period, though any rainfall is expected to be more limited across northern areas of the UK.
A ridge of high pressure is likely to re-establish itself over the eastern North Atlantic, potentially centred to the north or northwest of the UK. This would favour a return to more settled weather, with largely dry and calm conditions developing through the latter part of the week.
Temperatures are expected to be at least slightly above seasonal averages, though minor fluctuations are possible.
Monday 19 May to Sunday 1 June
Slightly Wetter, but Generally Mild
During this period, high pressure is expected to remain near or over the UK, maintaining broadly settled conditions. However, some long-range forecast models suggest a slight shift toward a more active North Atlantic pattern, which could lead to occasional wetter spells.
Despite this, a predominantly dry outlook still appears more likely overall.Temperatures are forecast to remain at least slightly above average for late May and early June, supporting a generally mild theme. Importantly, the risk of any notably cool or cold periods continues to decline.
This trend aligns with seasonal climatology and reflects a weakening high-pressure signal over the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic and the Scandinavian region. Nonetheless, some uncertainty persists due to the extended forecast range.
Looking Ahead
Friday’s update will provide a closer look at weather developments over the coming weeks, with a particular focus on whether the emerging trend toward wetter conditions is likely to persist further into the forecast period.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How reliable are long-range weather forecasts?
Long-range forecasts provide a general overview of expected weather trends rather than precise day-to-day conditions. While useful for identifying broader patterns—such as temperature shifts or rainfall trends—accuracy tends to decrease with time due to the complex and changing nature of atmospheric systems.
Why do forecasts sometimes change?
Forecasts are based on evolving weather data and model simulations. As new information becomes available, especially from satellites and global weather models, updates are made to improve accuracy and reflect the most current trends.
What does a “high-pressure system” mean for the weather?
High-pressure systems typically bring calm, dry, and settled weather. However, depending on their position and strength, they can also influence wind patterns and temperature variations.
Can long-range forecasts predict extreme weather events?
While they can highlight periods with an increased risk of unsettled or unusual weather, long-range forecasts are not designed to pinpoint specific extreme events. Short- to medium-range forecasts are better suited for such detailed warnings.
How should I use long-range forecasts?
Use them as a planning guide for general expectations—such as whether the period is likely to be warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average. For specific dates and events, rely on updated short-term forecasts closer to the time.
Conclusion
As we move through May and into early June, the forecast suggests a generally settled pattern with occasional wetter interludes, particularly toward the middle of the period. While high pressure remains a dominant influence, subtle shifts in Atlantic weather patterns could bring some variability, especially in southern and western areas. Temperatures are likely to stay at or above seasonal norms, with a decreasing risk of any significant cold spells.